Foreclosures

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Mortgage defaults in America: Can pay, won’t pay

Tuesday, June 30th, 2009

Mortgage

It is easier to dump a home loan if a friend has done so too

HOUSE prices in America have fallen so far that as many as one in five households have mortgage debt greater than the value of their homes. In a few states, borrowers are not liable for the shortfall between an unpaid loan and the resale value of the home it is secured upon. Even where borrowers are on the hook, lenders often find it too costly to pursue unpaid debts. So some homeowners may be tempted to default and escape the burden of negative equity.

How widespread is this practice? New research* based on a survey of 1,000 homeowners suggests that one in four mortgage defaults are “strategic”—by people who could meet their payments but who choose not to. The main drivers of strategic default are the scale of negative equity, and moral and social considerations. Few would opt to renege on their mortgage if the equity gap were below 10% of their home’s value, the authors find, partly because of the costs of moving. But one in six would bail out if loans were underwater by a half.

Four-fifths think strategic default is wrong. Those in the unethical minority are four times more likely to renege on loans (allowing for other influences) when their negative equity reaches $50,000. But morality has its price. When the equity gap reaches $100,000, “immoral” homeowners are only twice as keen to walk away from their debts as “moral” ones. People under 35 or over 65 are less likely to believe that default is wrong. So are the well-educated. (Read more at: Economist.com)

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{Photography by TheTruthAboutMortgage.com}

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The Home Appraisal Mess

Thursday, June 25th, 2009

Real Estate

From The Business Insider, June 25, 2009:   We’ve been talking this week about the NAR’s war against what it claims are low-ball home appraisals, caused by new regulations, and outside appraisers using distressed and foreclosure sales.

Real estate appraiser Jonathan Miller is weighing in on the question, and finds some merit to the idea that there are problems with current appraisal methods.

But first, he thinks it’s ridiculous to dismiss distressed and foreclosure sales as being somehow irrelevant, since the market is the market. If a home seller has to compete with other homes that are being foreclosed upon, then them’s the breaks, and that does legitimately drag down the value of a home. (Read more at: Yahoo Tech Ticker)

Update: The NAR’s Appalling Fight Against Honest Appraisals (The Business Insider)

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{Photography by Nancy Arora}

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Why Home Prices May Keep Falling

Monday, June 8th, 2009

Real Estate Foreclosure

HOME prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time.

Even the federal government has projected price decreases through 2010. As a baseline, the stress tests recently performed on big banks included a total fall in housing prices of 41 percent from 2006 through 2010. Their “more adverse” forecast projected a drop of 48 percent — suggesting that important housing ratios, like price to rent, and price to construction cost — would fall to their lowest levels in 20 years.

Such long, steady housing price declines seem to defy both common sense and the traditional laws of economics, which assume that people act rationally and that markets are efficient. Why would a sensible person watch the value of his home fall for years, only to sell for a big loss? Why not sell early in the cycle? If people acted as the efficient-market theory says they should, prices would come down right away, not gradually over years, and these cycles would be much shorter. (Read more at: NYTimes.com)

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{Photography by The Truth About}

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Promised Help Is Elusive for Some Homeowners

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

Foreclosure

She had seen the advertisements for the new government program offering relief. She had heard President Obama promise that help was on the way for homeowners like her, people who had lost jobs and could no longer make their mortgage payments.

But when Eileen Ulery called her mortgage company — Countrywide, now part of Bank of America — the bank did not offer to alter her mortgage. Rather, the bank tried to sell her a new loan with a slightly lower monthly payment while asking her to pay $13,000 toward the principal and a fresh $5,000 in fees.

Her problem was that she did not yet present a big enough problem to merit aid.

Yes, she was teetering toward delinquency. She was among millions of homeowners rapidly sliding toward danger for whom the Obama administration had devised an aid program — some already in foreclosure proceedings, others headed that way as they ran out of means to make their payments. But unlike those in imminent peril of losing their homes, Ms. Ulery had never missed a payment.

“I don’t know who this bailout is helping,” she said. “We’ve given these banks all this money and they’re not doing what they say they’re doing. Something’s not working right. They keep saying they’re doing all this, but we don’t see it down here at this level.”

More than three months after the Obama administration outlined a new program aimed at rescuing millions of distressed homeowners by compensating banks that modify mortgages, Ms. Ulery’s experience illustrates the mixture of confusion, frustration and limited assistance that now reigns. (Read more at: NYTimes.com)

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{Photography by Respres}

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U.S. home prices fall by record 19.1% in first quarter. Los Angeles area prices were down 41% from 2006 peak. Phoenix shows the most severe decline, 53%

Tuesday, May 26th, 2009

LA Real Estate

U.S. home prices showed no signs they’ve hit bottom, according to a series of national indexes released today. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller national home price index showed a record 19.1% drop in home prices for the first three months of this year.

Los Angeles area home prices, which include Orange County, were down 41% in March from their 2006 peak. Los Angeles is one of 10 metro areas down more than 30% from its peak price level, with Phoenix’s 53% decline in March from its peak the most severe.

Dallas, where prices did not inflate to the same degree during the housing bubble as metro areas in California, Arizona and Nevada, recorded the smallest decline from its peak, 11%.

Los Angeles area prices are down 22% from March a year ago. Phoenix’s 36% March decline from last year led the nation, followed by San Francisco, where March prices were 30% below the same month the previous year. (Read more at: LATimes.com)

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{Photography by nola.agent}

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Job Losses Push Safer Mortgages to Foreclosure

Monday, May 25th, 2009

Ochre Court Mansion

As job losses rise, growing numbers of American homeowners with once solid credit are falling behind on their mortgages, amplifying a wave of foreclosures.

In the latest phase of the nation’s real estate disaster, the locus of trouble has shifted from subprime loans — those extended to home buyers with troubled credit — to the far more numerous prime loans issued to those with decent financial histories.

With many economists anticipating that the unemployment rate will rise into the double digits from its current 8.9 percent, foreclosures are expected to accelerate. That could exacerbate bank losses, adding pressure to the financial system and the broader economy.

“We’re about to have a big problem,” said Morris A. Davis, a real estate expert at the University of Wisconsin. “Foreclosures were bad last year? It’s going to get worse.” (Read more at: NYTimes.com)

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{Photography by Ben+Sam}

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